It’s a scary time on Planet Earth.
The world seems headed for an armed conflict that could obliterate the human race.
If we manage to avoid setting a nuclear confrontation, the war in Ukrainian has still left thousands dead and condemned still thousands more to hunger and poverty. Millions of dollars have been spent and surely more are coming.
But is it enough to avert World War Three?
Despite international calls for diplomacy, shelling continues. Experts are divided on Russia’s willingness to use nuclear weapons as well as what the western response would be.
And if Russia manages to gain control of Ukraine, does that mean a NATO country is next? Would a Russian invasion of a NATO country automatically trigger World War Three?
Scary questions – Scarier answers.
But even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world was unstable, with war, death, and destruction happening in pockets all over the globe.
Why is the World Growing More Unstable?
It’s a complicated question with no single answer. Just multiple interconnected factors combine to make the world less stable.
To start, the conditions that led to the last Word War are present today. If we don’t course correct soon, we may not be able to avoid another big one.
Let’s try to peel away a few of the reasons why we just can’t seem to stop killing ourselves.
The Political Climate
The current political climate is tenser than ever. There are more authoritarian regimes in power, and they are butting heads with the democratic world.
China and Russia get most of the attention. They have been working together to challenge the world order that has been in place since World War Two.
The United States has also been acting more aggressively, especially under the current administration. The escalating trade war with China is taking place as disputes over Taiwan and control of the South Pacific simmer.
The world is less stable when the two most powerful countries are at odds.
Populism and Nationalism
The rise of populism and nationalism is also contributing to the world’s instability. People are looking for someone to blame for their problems, and they are gravitating toward leaders who offer simple solutions to complex problems.
The tilt toward division isn’t confined to the US, it’s happening in developed countries like Britain, France, and Italy as well as developing countries like Brazil and India.
Absent World Leadership
The lack of a strong global leader to provide stability and direction in these troubled times is also making the world a more dangerous place. There was a time when the world looked to the United States for leadership, but in many ways, that is no longer the case. Since at least the presidency of Barrack Obama, the US has walked back from its previous position as the “world police.”
As geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan, author of The Absent Superpower, explains:
“The end of American dependence upon extra-continental energy sources does more than sever the largest of the remaining ties that bind America’s fate to the wider world, it sets into motion a veritable cavalcade of trends: the re-industrialization of the United States, the accelerated breakdown of the global order, and a series of wide-ranging military conflicts that will shape the next two decades.”
Hate and Violence on Social Media
Social media contributes to the world’s instability because of its ability to spread violent ideas. The internet has created echo chambers where people only see information that reinforces their own beliefs. This is leading to more extreme views and a lack of understanding of, or caring for, people who hold different opinions.
When coupled with the anonymity of the internet, social media allows for a breeding ground for extreme views.
The world is a more dangerous place when people don’t have civil conversations and understand different points of view. Social media makes both of those more difficult.
Nuclear Weapon Proliferation
The proliferation of nuclear weapons makes it easier for small groups or states to cause catastrophic damage. Nuclear weapons are the most destructive, inhumane, and indiscriminate weapons ever created.
The spread of nuclear weapons also creates an incentive for other countries to develop their nuclear arsenals, leading to an arms race. This raises the risk of a nuclear accident or miscalculation, which could have catastrophic consequences. Spending on weapons also represents resources (capital and human) that could be going to things that improve lives rather than ending them.
Unstable Governments
On top of nuclear weapons possibly floating around, we also have unstable governments around the world. Governments, the US being a prime example, have found it harder and harder to govern. Citizens around the world don’t trust their governments to be reasonable and competent.
When countries and their governments are in turmoil, it increases the risk of conflict. Unstable governments are more likely to start or get involved in wars, and they are less likely to respect human rights. Nuclear weapons are also more likely to fall into the hands of terrorists when governments are unstable.
In the past, world wars were fought between countries with different ideologies. Today, the world is more divided than ever, and there are more guns and nuclear weapons than ever before.
And as countries fall into internal turmoil, populist leaders will look to simplistic scapegoats to blame.
Just bad times all around.
Growing Economic Inequality
The growing economic inequality between rich and poor people as well as countries is creating conditions for social unrest.
In America, rising wealth inequality and the wealth gap have been a topic of conversation going back at least to the Occupy Wall Street movement following the Great Financial Crisis. It is one of the more important problems we’re facing internally. And the same “success to the successful” phenomenon is playing out at the macro level between countries.
For myriad reasons, the past few decades have seen inequality grow. A small group of people has benefited immensely from globalization, while the vast majority have seen their standard of living stagnate or decline.
“Highly unequal societies are characterized by shallow social bonds (if you lose your economic standing, you lose your friends) and higher levels of anxiety, again even for the very well off,”
Famine, Drought, and Natural Disasters
A significant portion of the world population was already dealing with securing food, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not help. Both countries are integral not only to the world’s supply of wheat but much of the fertilizer used in agriculture. Potash, nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium are all integral to world food production and will be much more difficult to source in a war zone.
That means crop yields are going to fall, and food supplies will be disrupted.
Let’s not forget about climate change and extreme weather, including drought, which causes people to migrate in search of safety. In many parts of the world, reliable access to potable water is a life-or-death struggle.
All this instability is causing tensions between different groups of people, and even between countries, like the factors that led to the Syrian Civil War.
A Refugee Crisis
A refugee crisis, exacerbated by the Ukraine situation, is causing instability in many countries. It is putting a strain on resources, and it is making it more difficult for countries to function.
Waves of refugees from the Middle East and North Africa also add to global destabilization. Terrorist groups can recruit members by exploiting poverty and religious extremism.
The world is a more dangerous place when there are large groups of people who are desperate and have nothing to lose.
Waging War is Profitable
Promoting peace is not.
The military-industrial complex President Eisenhower warned about is alive and well. There’s lots of money to be made figuring out how to kill more people faster and cheaper. Especially if you can avoid losing the lives of citizens who are paying the bills.
The huge sums of money that can be made in war no doubt plays a part in the ongoing wars across the planet. “At This Restaurant Only One Person Is Served” by Ukrainian-Russian political cartoonist Yuliy Ganf, 1953.
Predator drones and war as a video game – Are we sure that’s a good idea?
And that’s what’s here now. We haven’t even talked about the future of war…
Can we stop killing ourselves?
Could we pretty please take all the energy that is spent on killing some and enslaving the rest, and instead invest it in ourselves?
How hard is that?
Who doesn’t want that?
Why is this so hard?
Wouldn’t we all rather live on a planet that aims to alleviate misery worldwide?
Isn’t world peace a reasonable goal to strive for?
- Tone down the hate
- Take the profit motive out of death and destruction
- Redouble diplomatic efforts, and lead by example
