From the micro to the macro level, vicious cycles can have a devastating impact on society. At their core, vicious cycles are self-reinforcing patterns of behavior that can be difficult to break without significant effort and intervention. These cycles can manifest in a range of different contexts, from personal relationships to global issues like climate change and poverty.
Here, we’ll explore how vicious cycles operate and the importance of mitigating them to create a better future.
What is a Vicious Cycle?
A vicious cycle is a self-reinforcing set of behaviors or events in which the negative consequences exacerbate that action or situation, leading to a further increase in negative consequences. Essentially, it’s a self-reinforcing loop where things keep getting worse and worse over time.
While the concept can be traced back to ancient philosophy and beyond, the term “vicious cycle” itself was first used in the mid-20th century by economist Arthur F. Burns, who was chairman of the Federal Reserve during the 1970s. Since then, the term has been widely adopted in various fields to describe self-reinforcing cycles of negative consequences.
Vicious Cycles Have a Huge Impact on Society
Vicious cycles can be incredibly powerful. Because they are self-reinforcing, they can quickly become entrenched. A lot of the worst problems we’re facing are because of these re-enforcing loops.
Examples of Vicious Cycles in Society
At the micro level, vicious cycles can manifest in personal relationships, with negative behaviors or patterns leading to more negative behaviors and outcomes. For example, a person struggling with addiction may find themselves caught in a cycle of substance abuse, where their use of drugs or alcohol leads to negative consequences that perpetuate their addiction. Or a couple’s escalating fights put greater and greater pressure on the relationship.
At the macro level, vicious cycles can be even more impactful, with the potential to impact entire communities or even the world at large. Climate change, for example, is often described as a vicious cycle, where rising temperatures lead to more extreme weather events and feedback loops that further accelerate global warming. Poverty is another example of a vicious cycle, where individuals or communities caught in a cycle of debt and financial instability struggle to break free from their circumstances.
Here are a few of the most harmful vicious cycles we’re facing:
Increase in Partisanship and Polarization
The increase of partisanship and polarization in politics, media, and culture can be described as a vicious cycle.
- Political polarization increases: Political polarization refers to the increasing ideological divide between political parties or groups. As political polarization increases, people become more entrenched in their views and less willing to compromise.
- Media amplifies polarization: The media, both traditional and social, exacerbate political polarization by providing biased reporting and catering to specific audiences. This led to the creation of echo chambers, where people only consume media that reinforces their existing views, further entrenching them in their positions. In the US right now, the media and the political parties they represent are acting in unison, with each “side” working from the same scripted talking points.
- People avoid those who disagree: As political polarization increases, and “the other side” is painted in a more and more inhumane light, people become less likely to engage with those who have different beliefs. This further entrenches people in their positions and makes it more difficult for any sort of meaningful dialogue or compromise to occur.
Reasonable people who are seeking to compromise are seen as traitors and silenced by the louder extremes who are idolized by their corresponding media environment. - Increased polarization leads to more extreme candidates: As political polarization increases, the media and political figures try to outdo each other catering to the extreme. This leads to the selection of more extreme political candidates less willing to compromise and more likely to engage in inflammatory rhetoric. Our broken primary process makes the selection of extremes much likelier to happen.
- Extreme candidates further polarize the public: Because the only answer to the extreme of their party, candidates can further polarize the public by pushing more radical policy positions and rhetoric that appeals to their base but alienates those who disagree with them.
- Polarization increases even more: And so the cycle continues… Political polarization leads to increased media coverage which leads to more extreme candidates which further polarizes the public and makes compromise and cooperation even more difficult.
This vicious cycle of political polarization and extremism can have serious consequences for progress in general and the functioning of democracy. As we see in today’s gridlocked environment, it can lead to a breakdown in governance and a lack of ability to address important issues. It can also contribute to a breakdown in social cohesion and an increase in hostility between different groups.
The “Runaway” Greenhouse Gas Effect
Scientists are concerned that continued carbon emissions could trigger a “runaway greenhouse gas effect.” The basic idea is that as temperatures rise due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, it could lead to the release of even more greenhouse gases, such as methane from melting permafrost or carbon dioxide from warming oceans. This could further increase temperatures, which could in turn lead to more greenhouse gas emissions.
This feedback loop is what scientists are calling a “runaway greenhouse gas effect.” It is one of the key reasons why scientists are urging global leaders to take action to reduce carbon emissions and limit global warming.
Escalation Toward War
The escalation toward war can be described as a vicious cycle.
- Tensions rise between countries: Tensions between countries can rise due to a variety of factors, such as territorial disputes, economic competition, ideological differences, or political grievances. These tensions can create a sense of mistrust and hostility between nations.
- Distrust leads to defensive actions: As tensions rise, countries may take defensive actions, such as increasing military spending, strengthening alliances, or deploying troops. These actions can be seen as defensive, but can also be perceived as aggressive by other countries, further fueling tensions.
- Aggressive actions lead to retaliation: Aggressive actions by one country can lead to retaliation by another country. For example, if one country deploys troops near a disputed border, the other country may respond by deploying its troops. This can escalate the situation and increase the risk of conflict.
- Escalation leads to more aggressive actions: As the situation escalates, both sides become more aggressive in their actions, leading to a further increase in tensions and the risk of conflict. Populist politicians seeking power pander to base emotions like fear and anger to rile up their supporters.
- Conflict becomes more likely: This cycle of escalating tensions and aggressive actions can ultimately lead to open conflict between countries, which can have devastating consequences for both sides.
- Lots of people die: As the escalation toward war reaches its zenith, a miscalculation or insignificant event can trigger a full-blown war. Instead of resources marshaled toward progress, they are used to slaughter hundreds, thousands, in World War millions of people. For what?
Countries need to recognize the risks of this cycle and take steps to reduce tensions and prevent escalation. Making people afraid or angry is simple, but usually destructive. Forging alliances and working through the challenges of diplomacy is much harder. But just about all of us prefer peace to war.
The Debt Trap and Poverty
The debt trap leading to lower living standards and poverty is another vicious cycle that affects too many people. In many cases, debt traps help perpetuate inequality, where “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.”
- Debt accumulates: People may take out loans or use credit cards to cover basic needs like food, housing, education, or medical bills. As debt accumulates, some people find it increasingly difficult to make their monthly payments.
- Interest and fees increase debt: Interest rates and fees on loans and credit cards add up over time, increasing the total amount of debt that people owe. This can make it even harder to pay off the debt, and often results in people having to borrow more just to keep up with the payments.
- Debt leads to financial stress: As debt accumulates and interest and fees increase, people may experience financial stress, which can affect their mental health, relationships, and job performance. Financial stress can also lead to health problems and other negative consequences.
- Financial stress leads to poor financial decisions: When people are under financial stress, they may make poor financial decisions, such as taking out more loans or making risky investments. These decisions can further exacerbate their financial problems and lead to even more debt.
- More debt leads to increased poverty: As the cycle continues, people may become trapped in a vicious cycle of debt and poverty. The more debt they accumulate, the more financially stressed they become, which can lead to even more poor financial decisions and even more debt. This can ultimately lead to poverty and even homelessness for some people.
We can extrapolate this cycle out to the city, state, and even country-wide level.
Vicious Cycles Are Hard to Reverse
Breaking a vicious cycle can be incredibly difficult, as these patterns of behavior are often self-reinforcing and can become entrenched over time. Individuals, communities, organizations, businesses, or countries caught in a vicious cycle may feel powerless to change their circumstances. They often lack the resources or support needed to do so. Societal and psychological factors can also contribute to the persistence of vicious cycles, as people may feel trapped by social norms or beliefs that reinforce negative patterns of behavior.
Changing entrenched systems is a formidable challenge. Inertia can be a powerful force. Breaking out of these cycles may require significant effort with uncertain outcomes. One of the big reasons change is hard is because of the fear of uncertainty.
Breaking Vicious Cycles
Despite the challenges, if we want to make meaningful progress we need to mitigate the most destructive feedback loops. Breaking vicious cycles will require collective action and systemic change, as well as individual efforts to recognize and challenge negative patterns of behavior.
Recognizing the Cycle
The first step to breaking a cycle is to understand that one exists. When we recognize a self-enforcing loop, we can dissect it and figure out why it exists. What actions are perpetuating the cycle? What incentives or motivations are causing those actions? Where do those come from?
Finding the Leverage Points
With a better understanding of the causes of a vicious cycle, the next step is to find places to intervene. What changes can be made to incentives, rules, and outcomes that will begin to move the system in a different direction? It is important to focus on incentives because incentives are what drive behavior.
Creating a New Cycle
Ultimately, the goal is to create incentives for positive outcomes that can be sustained over time. To do this, we need to create a new virtuous cycle that is more beneficial for all parties involved. It may take some experimentation and trial and error but with patience and persistence, we can find ways to break down the barriers that keep us in a vicious cycle.
Examples of Successful Efforts to Break Vicious Cycles
Yes, breaking these cycles can be difficult, but it is possible. Here are some examples of when vicious cycles were stopped and reversed.
Publishing Toxic Release Inventory data: One example famed system theory thinker Donella Meadows wrote about was the impact publishing of corporate emissions data starting in 1986 had on total emissions. “within two years [of data pubrication] chemical emissions nationwide (at least as reported, and presumably also in fact) had decreased by 40 percent. Some companies were launching policies to bring their emissions down by 90 percent, just because of the release of previously withheld information.”
The “Boston Miracle”: In the 1990s, Boston was experiencing a vicious cycle of gang violence, with each act of violence leading to retaliatory attacks and further violence. However, community leaders, law enforcement, and social service organizations came together to implement a multi-pronged approach to reducing violence. This included increased police presence, targeted social services for at-risk youth, and community outreach and education. Over time, the city saw a significant reduction in violent crime, breaking the vicious cycle of gang violence.
The Jubilee 2000 campaign: In the late 1990s, many developing countries were trapped in a vicious cycle of debt, with high-interest payments consuming much of their budgets and preventing them from investing in development. The Jubilee 2000 campaign was a global effort to cancel the debts of the poorest countries, allowing them to break free from the cycle of borrowing and interest payments. While not all debts were canceled, the campaign succeeded in bringing attention to the issue and securing significant debt relief for many countries.
The reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park: In the early 20th century, wolves were hunted to near-extinction in Yellowstone, leading to a vicious cycle of ecological degradation. Without wolves to control their populations, deer and elk overgrazed the park’s vegetation, leading to erosion and a loss of habitat for other species. However, in 1995, wolves were reintroduced to the park, allowing the ecosystem to recover. Wolves helped to control deer and elk populations, allowing vegetation to regrow and restoring habitat for other animals. This is an example of how a single intervention (reintroducing wolves) can break a complex vicious cycle and restore an ecosystem.
If you haven’t seen this video of the process, it’s well worth a watch, and can provide some encouragement.
The Truth and Reconciliation Commission in South Africa: In the aftermath of apartheid, South Africa was trapped in a vicious cycle of violence and retribution. However, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission was established to allow victims and perpetrators of human rights violations to come forward and tell their stories. This process of truth-telling and reconciliation helped to break the cycle of violence and allowed the country to move forward with a new sense of unity and purpose.
Sometimes the work was relatively simple, as was the case of introducing a few wolves to Yellowstone or requiring data. Other times the work can be quite complex, like the hundreds of people involved in the Boston Miracle or the perhaps thousands working for the Jubilee 2000 campaign. But either way, feedback loops were mitigated, the vicious cycle was broken, and a new trajectory was established.
Dealing with Vicious Cycles Can Save the World
Vicious cycles can have a significant impact on society, from personal relationships to global issues like climate change and poverty. These cycles can be difficult to break. But we must work to mitigate them to create positive feedback loops and more sustainable patterns of behavior. By recognizing the power of vicious cycles and taking action to address them, we can create a better future for ourselves and the world around us.
